{"id":7120,"date":"2024-08-31T14:50:59","date_gmt":"2024-08-31T07:50:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phukienmattroi.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/31\/the-gioi-van-nghien-dau\/"},"modified":"2024-08-31T14:50:59","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T07:50:59","slug":"the-gioi-van-nghien-dau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phukienmattroi.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/31\/the-gioi-van-nghien-dau\/","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1eabn ‘nghi\u1ec7n’ d\u1ea7u"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u leo thang sau xung \u0111\u1ed9t Ukraine cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a b\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f3i quen \u0111\u00e3 \u0103n s\u00e2u h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7.<\/p>\n

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Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi gi\u1edd c\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111\u00e3 b\u1edbt ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m di\u1ec5n ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70. Tuy nhi\u00ean, kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Ukraine l\u00e0 minh ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t cho c\u01a1n kh\u00e1t d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, l\u00e0m \u0111au \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho xung \u0111\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

Khi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Yom Kippur 1973 n\u1ed5 ra, ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho l\u1ec7nh c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia Arab khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u00e1o lo\u1ea1n, \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean hai ch\u1eef s\u1ed1, d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 khi \u0111\u00f3 chi\u1ebfm g\u1ea7n 50% trong c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y c\u00f2n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ba.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 nh\u1edd c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u00e0u t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y t\u0103ng hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7n t\u1eeb d\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u sang than \u0111\u00e1 v\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. M\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Columbia n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e2y n\u1eeda th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf x%, gi\u1edd ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n c\u1ea7n ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y n\u1eeda th\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>
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M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Bashneft t\u1ea1i Bashkortostan (Nga). \u1ea2nh: Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0i n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y th\u1eadm ch\u00ed cho r\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00ecnh t\u0129nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. S\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh phong t\u1ecfa v\u00ec Covid-19 hai n\u0103m qua l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1eabn v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt n\u0103m 2021 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u li\u00ean t\u1ee5c leo thang sau xung \u0111\u1ed9t Ukraine m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1eabn \u0111ang n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf th\u00f3i quen \u0111\u00e3 \u0103n s\u00e2u h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 nay.<\/p>\n

Alan Gelder \u2013 Ph\u00f3 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u, h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i h\u00e3ng t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n Wood Mackenzie cho bi\u1ebft vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Do vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, nh\u01b0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n giao th\u00f4ng hay thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb. “Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u”, \u00f4ng cho bi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng t\u1edbi 50% t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m ti\u00eau tan hy v\u1ecdng n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao do c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch k\u00edch th\u00edch trong \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch s\u1ebd h\u1ea1 d\u1ea7n. Nh\u01b0ng thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt l\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt, r\u1eb1ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u0111\u00e3 \u0103n s\u00e2u v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 \u0111ang l\u00e1i xe \u00edt \u0111i. C\u00e1c h\u00e3ng bay c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 v\u00e9 l\u00ean cao h\u01a1n. T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed3 nh\u1ef1a, ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111\u1ebfn x\u0103ng, c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m t\u1eeb d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u0103ng cao.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef li\u00ean bang (Fed) \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u1ee9 t\u0103ng 10 USD m\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m 0,1% v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 0,2%. C\u00f2n t\u1ea1i eurozone, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) t\u00ecm ra gi\u00e1 c\u1ee9 t\u0103ng 10% (theo euro), l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00ean 0,1% – 0,2%.<\/p>\n

\u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean \u1edf c\u00e2y x\u0103ng. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eadp d\u1ea7u \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111ang g\u1ea5p r\u00fat \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ti\u1ec1n x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n, do s\u1ee3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i phong tr\u00e0o bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh “\u00e1o v\u00e0ng” nh\u01b0 n\u0103m 2018 khi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 mu\u1ed1n t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u.<\/p>\n

C\u00f2n \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u2013 khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u c\u0169ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao nh\u1ea5t, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u1ee3 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 gh\u00ecm gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u.<\/p>\n

\u1ede M\u1ef9 – n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, Fed cho bi\u1ebft v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng khi\u1ebfn ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Jerome Powell b\u1edbt lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c r\u1ea5t cao. \u00d4ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 “h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh tay” \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t 5 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ea7u trong c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb 45% xu\u1ed1ng 31%. V\u00ec th\u1ebf, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi l\u1edbn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o, khi r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf cam k\u1ebft \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Net Zero (ph\u00e1t th\u1ea3i b\u1eb1ng 0).<\/p>\n

Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chuy\u1ec3n sang xe \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng th\u00eam v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n. C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n ch\u1edf kh\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

“Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh trong v\u00f2ng v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi, r\u1ed3i \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng. C\u00f2n GDP v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng”, Sverre Alvik \u2013 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i h\u00e3ng c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n DNV cho bi\u1ebft. \u00d4ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ed1 xe \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1ebd chi\u1ebfm 50% doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe m\u1edbi trong 10 n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

D\u0129 nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u \u0111ang t\u0103ng t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c1, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n, h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ea5t ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd v\u1eabn cao trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

“D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 d\u1ea7u nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t nhanh ch\u00f3ng”, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i IEA k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 trong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n l\u1ea1c quan nh\u1ea5t, vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch kh\u1ecfi d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ea1ng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch v\u1eabn s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c l\u1edbn m\u1edbi v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Isabel Schnabel – m\u1ed9t l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ECB – th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 d\u00f9ng t\u1eeb “l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch” \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 cho “h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch”. B\u00e0 cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 cao m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 v\u00ec c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf khi\u1ebfn nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec1u l\u00e0 v\u00ec c\u00e1c h\u00e3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1 t\u00ecnh si\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c Anh, M\u1ef9 \u00e1p l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t l\u00ean d\u1ea7u Nga, c\u00f2n ch\u00e2u \u00c2u mu\u1ed1n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eadp kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t Nga, b\u00e0 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: “Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch gi\u1ea3m l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u1edfng”.<\/p>\n

H\u00e0 Thu<\/strong> (theo Reuters)<\/em><\/p>\n


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